UKIP and the 2015 general election: is the Farage balloon beginning to deflate?

farage defeated.

I will be writing an analysis of UKIP’ 2015 election result in due course.  In April 2014 I wrote a critique of Ford and Goodwin’s book on UKIP, Revolt on the Right, arguing that they overestimated the potential of UKIP to break through electorally.  In particularly, I questioned the assertion that UKIP were imminently about the start making inroads Labour’s working class electoral base.  This is, particularly on Matthew Goodwin’s part, allied to something of a “Blue Labour” view that the Labour Party needs to be more assertive in accommodating the anti-immigration views of many in its potential electoral base.

In this review I argued that Ford and Goodwin’s view that UKIP could break through into Westminster politics was at best an exaggeration, but more likely based on a reading of their statistical data that was simply wrong.  The election result, I think, bears this view out (although this needs much more detailed analysis).  The original piece bears re-reading in this context. Read it here.

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